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750 tons of Iranian military weapons discovered in the Red Sea! How will the geopolitical storm stir up the gold market after the Houthi armed supply line is cut off?
- July 18, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
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On July 17, 2025, during a patrol mission in the Red Sea, Yemeni security forces intercepted a cargo ship flying the Liberian flag, carrying 750 tons of weapons that caused a global shock. According to the on-site video and list released by the Yemeni authorities, this batch of weapons includes advanced equipment such as naval missile systems, air defense radars, attack drones, and anti armor missiles. Some of the weapons’ Persian language manuals and Iranian Ministry of Defense affiliated enterprise logos directly point to their sources. Tariq Saleh, a member of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, explicitly stated in a statement that these weapons are “starting from Iran and aimed directly at the Houthi armed forces”, and emphasized that their tactical value far exceeds the needs of the Yemeni civil war, implying that they may be used in broader regional conflicts.
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Labor market signals and gold price drivers: the dual struggle between the Federal Reserve and global capital
- July 18, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
Against the backdrop of a profound adjustment in the global economic landscape, the linkage between the US monetary policy and the gold market has become increasingly prominent. The fierce disagreement within the Federal Reserve on the timing of interest rate cuts, the chain reaction caused by the Trump administration’s tariff policy, and the subtle changes in global capital’s confidence in US dollar assets have jointly shaped the new positioning of gold as a core asset. From the central bank’s gold purchase boom to the surge in market demand for risk aversion, gold is evolving from a traditional crisis hedging tool to a strategic allocation target for geopolitical economic uncertainties.
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Trump uses’ renovation door ‘to pressure Powell, Federal Reserve urgently refutes rumors!
- July 14, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On July 13th local time, US President Trump once again publicly demanded the resignation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, citing a $700 million overspend on the renovation project of the Federal Reserve headquarters, and hinted that he would dismiss him through legal means. This event, known as the “renovation door” by the market, has caused a global financial market shock. The Federal Reserve issued a statement overnight clarifying that the renovation project is a necessary maintenance and has nothing to do with policy. The spot gold price rose to $3372.49 per ounce in the Asian session on July 14th and then fell back, eventually rebounding to around $3370. Market risk aversion and policy games intertwined, and short-term fluctuations in gold intensified.
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Trump’s tariff stick hangs, Powell gets’ perfect excuse ‘to maintain high interest rates, gold under pressure
- July 9, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On July 7th, US President Trump signed an executive order to postpone the effective date of “equivalent tariffs” on 14 countries including Japan and South Korea from July 9th to August 1st, and announced specific tax rates (25% -40%). Although this policy adjustment provides a three week buffer period for each country, it explicitly requires the other party to reach a trade agreement before August 1st, otherwise they will face higher tariffs. Affected by this, the Nikkei 225 index of the Tokyo stock market fell by 1.2% on July 8th, and the stock prices of Toyota, Honda and other car companies fell by more than 4%.
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In depth analysis of the June 2025 non farm payroll report: “False fire” cannot conceal hidden employment concerns
- July 7, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
In June 2025, the non farm payroll data in the United States exceeded expectations on the surface but remained structurally weak, with 147000 new jobs added (expected 110000, revised from the previous value of 144000), the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% (expected 4.3%), and wages increasing by 3.7% year-on-year (expected 3.8%). Despite strong headline data, the private sector only added 74000 people, the lowest level since October 2024, and the government sector contributed nearly half of the new employment (73000 people), mainly concentrated in the state and local education sector.
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Global crude oil market game: the complex chess game behind policy swings and strategic production increases
- July 2, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
Recently, the global crude oil market has been impacted by two forces: the United States has been volatile in its policy toward Iran. Since the Trump administration withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and imposed strong sanctions, Iran’s crude oil exports have dropped sharply from a peak of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2018 to less than 500,000 barrels; although the Biden administration has sought negotiations, it has been deadlocked due to core differences. At the same time, OPEC+ has promoted its production increase plan. Since the production cuts due to the epidemic in 2020, according to the 2023 meeting plan, it plans to increase production by about 2 million barrels per day in 2024. The combination of the two has caused WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices to fluctuate between $70 and $90 per barrel, exacerbating the geopolitical game in the Middle East and affecting the reshaping of the global energy landscape.
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Khamenei claims victory over Israel, US military ‘futile’: geopolitical game intensifies, gold under pressure and shaking
- June 30, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On June 26th local time, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei made his first televised speech after the ceasefire agreement came into effect, announcing Iran’s “comprehensive victory” in the conflict with Israel and criticizing US military intervention as “futile”. He stated that the Iranian armed forces have broken through Israel’s “advanced multi-layered defense system”, causing significant damage to its military facilities and cities, while “slapping the United States hard” by attacking the US Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
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US Middle East envoy says long-term peace agreement ‘optimistic outlook’, gold market under pressure to decline
- June 25, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On June 24th, US Middle East envoy Witkov stated in an interview with Fox News that the US is engaging in direct and indirect contacts with Iran and that it is “time” to negotiate a comprehensive peace agreement, emphasizing his “confidence” in reaching an agreement. This statement echoes the ceasefire decision announced by Iranian President Pezehezhian on the same day – Pezehezhian stated that the 12 day conflict instigated by Israel has ended and Iran will focus on reconstruction work. On the same day, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Grossi, confirmed that although some of Iran’s nuclear facilities were damaged, key research and power reactors were not attacked, providing a technical basis for subsequent negotiations.
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The Fed’s inaction hides differences, while the ECB sets off a wave of easing! The global policy cycle is facing a sharp divergence
- June 23, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
At the June 2025 monetary policy meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged as expected by the market, while reiterating its policy inclination to cut interest rates twice this year. The signals released by this meeting were relatively mild, and the market reaction was flat. Citigroup described it as a “lackluster” policy meeting. The Fed’s updated economic forecasts showed only slight adjustments to expectations for GDP growth, unemployment and inflation, but the “dot plot” revealed obvious differences among internal decision-makers: 8 policymakers expected two rate cuts by the end of 2025, reflecting concerns about slowing economic growth and pressures in the job market; 7 policymakers tended to keep interest rates unchanged, highlighting the dilemma of fighting inflation and coping with policy uncertainty.
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The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive months, and expectations of interest rate cuts have cooled down! Under the pressure of tariffs and inflation, Powell sends signals of flexible policies
- June 20, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On the early morning of June 19th Beijing time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% -4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive pause in interest rate hikes since December 2024, in line with market expectations. The resolution statement pointed out that the US economic activity is “steadily expanding” and the unemployment rate is “staying low”, but at the same time emphasized that inflation is “still slightly high”, and for the first time mentioned the “impact of net export fluctuations on data”, implying that the Federal Reserve is wary of the transmission effect of tariff policies and external risks.
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