Gold trading reminder: fierce competition for the $3000 mark, short-term fluctuations do not change the bullish tone

1、 Market dynamics: retracement to key support, intensified long short game

On the morning of March 24th in the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly around $3025 per ounce. Last Friday, due to the strengthening of the US dollar and profit taking sentiment, the gold price briefly fell below the $3000 integer level during trading, ultimately closing at $3023. The weekly cumulative increase was 1.17%, achieving three consecutive gains. Despite short-term pressure, geopolitical risks and expectations of Fed interest rate cuts continue to support gold prices, which have hit historic highs 16 times this year and reached a high of $3057 on Thursday.

The US dollar index rose 0.34% to 104.22 last Friday, hitting a two-week high and weakening the attractiveness of gold priced in US dollars. US President Trump plans to implement new tariff policies on April 2nd, coupled with the continued deterioration of the Middle East situation (Israel resuming military operations in Gaza, US airstrikes on Yemen), market risk aversion and inflation expectations are intertwined, driving gold prices to maintain high volatility.

2、 Fundamentals: Interwoven long and short factors, stable long-term support

1. Federal Reserve policy: dovish signals strengthen the value of gold allocation

The Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% -4.50% and has hinted at two rate cuts within the year (totaling 50 basis points), while slowing down the pace of balance sheet tightening. This reduces the return on US dollar assets and enhances gold’s resistance to inflation and safe haven properties. Data shows that the Federal Reserve has raised its inflation forecast for 2025 to 2.7% and lowered its economic growth forecast to 1.7%, further highlighting the defensive value of gold.

2. Geopolitical situation: Escalation of conflicts drives up demand for safe haven

The implementation of the ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has encountered obstacles, and both sides continue to attack energy facilities; The Israeli Palestinian conflict has resumed, and the daily death toll in the Gaza Strip has risen to 200. The attacks by the Houthis on Israel and the US military have intensified regional tensions and pushed funds towards gold. Deutsche Bank pointed out that geopolitical risks limit the downward space of gold prices in the short term.

3. Market sentiment: Institutions cautious, retail investors still bullish

Kitco survey shows that experts are increasingly divided on short-term gold prices, with some believing that overbought pullbacks are inevitable (such as VR Metals analyst Mark Leibovit), but most retail investors are still bullish on the future. SIA wealth management strategist Colin Cieszynski stated that $3000 has become a key psychological support, with active buying on dips.

3、 Technical aspect: Short term oscillation consolidation, focus on range breaking

1. Daily level

The gold price fell back after closing at a high level and breaking through the 5-day moving average, but still stabilized above the 10 day moving average ($3010). The MACD red bar has shortened, and the RSI has fallen from the overbought area to around 60, indicating a weakening of bullish momentum. However, the moving average system maintains a bullish alignment, and the long-term trend has not changed.

2.4 hour level

The gold price fluctuated widely in the range of 3057-3000 US dollars, forming a head and shoulder shape. If it loses $3000, it may drop to $2980 support; If the rebound recovers $3036, the upward trend will continue.

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4、 Outlook for the future: Short term adjustment does not change the bull market, focus on key data

Short term gold prices may continue to fluctuate, and special attention should be paid to:

European and American PMI data (March 24th): If the data is weak, it may strengthen the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.

Tariff Policy Implementation (April 2): Details of Trump’s new tariffs may exacerbate market volatility.

The evolution of geopolitical situation: progress in Russia Ukraine negotiations and the risk of spillover from the Israeli Palestinian conflict.

FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich pointed out that the long-term trend of gold is still upward, with a target of $3180. Investors can place multiple orders at low prices, strictly control their positions, and avoid chasing high risks.

Risk Warning: The price of gold is affected by multiple factors and fluctuates violently. It is recommended that investors develop strategies based on their own risk tolerance and set stop loss take profit.

The views presented in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.