European defense autonomy accelerates: France and Britain will provide military aid to Ukraine, boosting gold safe haven once again

1、 European Defense Union launches, Ukraine becomes strategic pivot

On March 28th, the Paris Summit announced the establishment of the “European Will Alliance” led by France and the UK, officially launching the Ukrainian military support plan. According to the agreement, Europe will invest 2 billion euros in military aid, including cutting-edge equipment such as Rafale fighter jets and SCALP cruise missiles, and plans to build the Ukrainian military into a standing force of 500000 to 1 million people in the next three years, forming a “steel defense line” against Russia. Danish Prime Minister Fredricksen emphasized that this force will be stationed in Ukraine and become the “first line of defense” for European security.

This action marks a significant shift in European defense policy. Previously, the US military aid to Ukraine was in a political stalemate, and many European countries were concerned that excessive reliance on the US would lead to strategic passivity. French President Macron bluntly stated, “Europe must take control of its own destiny.” Data shows that in 2024, European countries’ military aid to Ukraine increased by 140% year-on-year, surpassing the United States to become the largest source of military aid to Ukraine.

2、 The escalation of geopolitical conflicts has boosted the demand for safe haven

The situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to deteriorate, with the Russian military launching a new round of drone attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities recently, destroying a total of 117 incoming drones. The military intervention of France and Britain has triggered a strong reaction from Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov warned that “any foreign military presence will be considered a legitimate target of attack.

Affected by this, the international spot gold price has broken through $3080/ounce, setting a new historical record, with a intraday increase of over 0.9%. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for gold prices by the end of 2025 to $3300, and in extreme cases, it may exceed $4200.

3、 European defense autonomy reshapes global financial landscape

The establishment of the European Defense Union is changing the logic of global asset allocation:

1. Accelerated de dollarization: France announced that military aid will be partially settled in euros, and the European Central Bank plans to expand its gold reserves to 20% of total reserves (currently 17.5%)

2. Rise of regional currencies: GBP/EUR exchange rate breaks through 1.18 mark, reaching a three-month high, reflecting market confidence in the European economy

3. Energy security premium: European natural gas futures prices rebound to 45 euros/megawatt hour, driving resource stocks to strengthen

The current gold market is in a double-click stage of “geopolitical risk premium+loose monetary policy”, and investors need to pay close attention to the countermeasures after Trump’s tariff policy was implemented on April 2nd; The impact of US non farm payroll data on Federal Reserve policy on April 5th; The specific deployment of subsequent military actions by the European Defense Union.