Khamenei claims victory over Israel, US military ‘futile’: geopolitical game intensifies, gold under pressure and shaking

1、 Background and Core Statement of the Event

On June 26th local time, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei made his first televised speech after the ceasefire agreement came into effect, announcing Iran’s “comprehensive victory” in the conflict with Israel and criticizing US military intervention as “futile”. He stated that the Iranian armed forces have broken through Israel’s “advanced multi-layered defense system”, causing significant damage to its military facilities and cities, while “slapping the United States hard” by attacking the US Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

Khamenei emphasized that the real purpose of US intervention in the conflict is to “save Israel from collapse”, but ultimately “achieve nothing”, and warned Iran that it will continue to retain the ability to strike US military targets in the region.

2、 The fragility of ceasefire agreements and subsequent games

On June 24th, US President Trump announced a comprehensive ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, with both sides ceasing military operations in stages. However, Khamenei’s speech highlighted the fragility of the ceasefire agreement: Iran’s parliament passed a bill on the 25th to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, while Israeli Defense Minister Katz revealed that the Israeli military had planned to “clear” Khamenei but was unsuccessful. In addition, Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Zamir claimed that Iran’s nuclear program has been “set back by several years” due to airstrikes, while Khamenei insisted that nuclear facilities have not been significantly affected, and both sides have fallen into a “Rashomon Gate”.

3、 Market Contradiction Psychology and Technical Pressure

Although Khamenei’s tough stance may theoretically boost demand for safe haven gold, the current market is more concerned about the short-term effectiveness of the ceasefire agreement. At the same time, technically speaking, the daily level of gold shows a fluctuating pattern of “yin and yang alternation”, with prices fluctuating within the range of $3300-3340, and the MACD indicator indicating a balance of long and short forces. On the hourly chart, gold fell below the support of $3320 and rebounded weakly, with the RSI indicator hovering around 40, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. In terms of fund flow, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF have decreased for three consecutive days, dropping to 953.39 tons on June 25th, reflecting the cautious attitude of institutional investors towards short-term gold price trends.

4、 The dual tug of war between geopolitical risks and monetary policy

The uncertainty of the situation in the Middle East remains a potential support factor for gold. In his speech, Khamenei explicitly stated that Iran will continue to “resist US hegemony” and hinted at the possibility of restarting attacks on US military bases. Historical data shows that the escalation of geopolitical conflicts usually drives gold to rise in the short term, for example, on June 23, gold opened up by $24 to $3398 per ounce due to Iran’s attack on a US military base.

However, the current market is more concerned about the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy: CME’s “Federal Reserve Watch” shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 74.9%, but Powell emphasized the need to wait for the transmission effect of tariffs on inflation to become clear, as the high interest rate environment still suppresses the attractiveness of gold.

Khamenei’s victory declaration has intensified the complexity of geopolitical games, but the short-term effectiveness of the ceasefire agreement still dominates market sentiment. Under the dual pull of cooling demand for safe haven and fluctuating expectations of interest rate cuts, gold is highly likely to maintain a volatility in the range of $3300-3340 in the short term. Investors need to pay close attention to the guidance of evening PCE data, while being alert to sudden escalation of geopolitical risks or rapid correction of Federal Reserve policy expectations. Before the data is released, the market may continue to adopt a cautious attitude, and the volatility range of gold may further narrow.