Non farm payroll forecast for March: gold investment guide under the cooling of labor market and policy game

1、Non farm Summary: The Resilience Test of the Employment Market under Policy Disturbance

On April 4th at 20:30 Beijing time (daylight saving time), the United States will release its non farm payroll report for March. It is expected that the average hourly wage will increase by 3.9% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous value of 4%, and the month on month increase will remain unchanged at the level of 0.3%; The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

Against the backdrop of Trump’s tariff policies continuing to ferment and global trade frictions intensifying, the US job market is facing a dual pressure of “policy shock+economic transformation”. The manufacturing industry has experienced three consecutive months of negative growth in employment, and the willingness to hire in the service industry has cooled down. The data performance will directly affect the market’s expectations for the pace of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, becoming a key variable in the trend of gold prices.

2、 Comparison of non farm and non farm sectors: ADP predicts differentiation in employment structure

Analysis of ADP Data for Small Non Agricultural Farmers

Data feature: As a non farm “rehearsal”, ADP’s private sector employment in February only increased by 77000 people (previously 183000), hitting a new low since August 2024. The predicted value for March is 118000 people.

Market impact: ADP data reflects the cautious recruitment attitude of the private sector under policy uncertainty. If it resonates with non farm payroll data, it will strengthen market expectations for the Fed’s July interest rate cut. Historical data shows that when the deviation between ADP and non farm payroll data exceeds 20%, the average 24-hour volatility of gold prices expands to 1.8%.

The ADP employment figures for March will be announced on Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025 at 20:15.

Outlook for Big Non Agricultural Data

Core indicators: Pre value of 151000 (February), predicted value of 139000 (March). If the data is below 140000 and the unemployment rate exceeds 4.2%, it may trigger the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut to heat up, pushing gold to break through $3150; If the data exceeds 180000 and the salary growth rate rebounds, the gold price may rebound to support $3050.

Industry differentiation: Employment in government departments has increased for 12 consecutive months, with a cumulative increase of 456000; The employment in the manufacturing industry decreased by 213000, and the automobile tariff policy became the core drag factor.

The data on changes in non-agricultural employment population for March will be released on April 4, 2025 (Friday) at 20:30.

(1) Non farm payroll data falls short of expectations: weak US job market, bearish for the US dollar, bullish for gold;

(2) Non farm payroll data exceeds expectations: the US job market is good, positive for the US dollar, negative for gold.

3、 Institutional prediction divergence

Goldman Sachs predicts 135000 new additions, warns of manufacturing contraction or chain reaction, maintains July interest rate cut expectation

Morgan Stanley: Expected to add 180000, emphasizing that slowing salary growth will alleviate inflationary pressures, and suggesting short selling gold at high prices

Huatai Futures: The overall employment data is weak, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates still exists. The market expects a possible 50-75 basis point interest rate cut within the year.

4、 Non farm trading strategy: long short layout of gold and silver

Analysis of the Gold Market

Core drivers: Global central bank gold buying frenzy, geopolitical risks, and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts support gold prices. As of March 31st, the holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold ETF, increased to 931.94 tons, an increase of 2.29 tons from the previous day. In January 2025, global central banks made net purchases of 18 tons, with emerging market central banks becoming the main buyers. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50-100 basis points within the year, gold ETFs may increase their holdings by 360 tons.

Technical aspect: International gold prices opened at $3089.7 per ounce on March 31st, reaching a record high of $3106.57 during trading. The daily level gold price is running above the 20 day moving average ($3080), and the MACD indicator’s red bar continues to widen, but the RSI has entered the overbought zone (72), indicating a short-term pullback demand. The key support level is $3050 (200 day moving average), and the pressure level is $3180 (institutional target price).

Silver Market Analysis

Supply and demand structure: The holdings of European and American silver ETFs continue to increase, reflecting strong investment demand. On March 31st, the spot silver price opened at $34.11 per ounce

Technical aspect: Daily silver price stabilizes at $33.50 support, with the 20 day moving average diverging upwards. The 15 minute chart shows the formation of a short-term center in the range of 34.00-34.20, with a target of $34.80 after breaking through.

Specific strategies

Gold:

Data below 140000 and unemployment rate rising: retrace to stabilize and go long in the range of $3066-3070, stop loss at $3060, target at $3085-3095.

Data better than 180000 and salary rebound: rebound to the range of $3100-3105, blocked short selling, stop loss of $3110, target of $3085-3075.

Silver:

Data neutral to bearish: stabilize and go long in the range of $33.50-33.80, stop loss at $33.30, target at $34.50-34.80.

Data exceeded expectations and weakened: rebounded to the range of $34.40-34.60, encountered resistance and shorted, with a stop loss of $34.70 and a target of $34.10-33.90.

5、 Important Events of Non Farm Week

Trump’s tariff policy: On April 2nd, comprehensive equivalent tariffs were announced, with an average tax rate of over 15%, which may trigger an escalation of the global trade war

Federal Reserve interest rate decision: Minutes of April 3rd meeting may release signal of interest rate cut, current probability of interest rate cut rises to 65%

Trading risk warning: Pay attention to sub item data such as government departments and the healthcare industry, and be alert to seasonal adjustment deviations. Any investment carries risks, including the risk of financial loss. This suggestion does not constitute specific investment advice, and investors should make decisions based on their risk tolerance, investment goals, and market conditions.