The Trump administration announced on April 14th the launch of a “national security tariff investigation” on the semiconductor and electronics supply chain, which directly impacted the global industrial chain, causing a 3% drop in US stock futures and a drop in the US dollar index below the 99.01 mark. At the same time, the US CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in March, which was lower than expected, but the increase in import costs caused by tariffs has led the market to bet on a 75% probability of a rate cut in June. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is caught in a dilemma between “anti inflation” and “anti recession”, with only 50 basis points left in his policy toolbox for interest rate cuts, and the market exclaims that “the Federal Reserve’s bullets have run out”.

The non farm employment market in the United States in March showed characteristics of “total volume exceeding expectations and structural differentiation”, with employment resilience and slowing wage growth coexisting, providing complex signals for the Federal Reserve’s policy-making. Data shows that after the quarterly adjustment in March, the non farm employment population increased by 228000, far exceeding the market expectation of 135000, and the previous value was revised down from 151000 to 117000.

On April 4th at 20:30 Beijing time (daylight saving time), the United States will release its non farm payroll report for March. It is expected that the average hourly wage will increase by 3.9% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous value of 4%, and the month on month increase will remain unchanged at the level of 0.3%; The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

Recently, the US economic situation has become complicated, with rising inflation expectations, falling consumer confidence and volatility in the gold market intertwined, bringing many uncertainties to the economic outlook. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that investors in the US bond market are anticipating rising inflation, which would be a “major danger signal” that could undermine policymakers’ plans to cut interest rates.

Recently, the US dollar index has continued its rebound trend, significantly suppressing international gold prices. The US dollar index, which measures the exchange rates of the US dollar against six major currencies, fluctuated upwards from a low of 104.17 and finally closed at 104.258, with a daily increase of 0.16%. As a result, spot gold prices have continued to decline from their historical high of around $3050 per ounce, approaching the integer level of $3000 at one point, with a cumulative adjustment of nearly $50. Market participants pointed out that the strengthening of the US dollar combined with short-term profit taking is the main driving force behind this round of gold price adjustment, but the core logic supporting gold in the medium and long term remains unchanged.

On the morning of March 24th in the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly around $3025 per ounce. Last Friday, due to the strengthening of the US dollar and profit taking sentiment, the gold price briefly fell below the $3000 integer level during trading, ultimately closing at $3023. The weekly cumulative increase was 1.17%, achieving three consecutive gains. Despite short-term pressure, geopolitical risks and expectations of Fed interest rate cuts continue to support gold prices, which have hit historic highs 16 times this year and reached a high of $3057 on Thursday.