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Global crude oil market game: the complex chess game behind policy swings and strategic production increases
- July 2, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
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Recently, the global crude oil market has been impacted by two forces: the United States has been volatile in its policy toward Iran. Since the Trump administration withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and imposed strong sanctions, Iran’s crude oil exports have dropped sharply from a peak of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2018 to less than 500,000 barrels; although the Biden administration has sought negotiations, it has been deadlocked due to core differences. At the same time, OPEC+ has promoted its production increase plan. Since the production cuts due to the epidemic in 2020, according to the 2023 meeting plan, it plans to increase production by about 2 million barrels per day in 2024. The combination of the two has caused WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices to fluctuate between $70 and $90 per barrel, exacerbating the geopolitical game in the Middle East and affecting the reshaping of the global energy landscape.
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The Fed’s inaction hides differences, while the ECB sets off a wave of easing! The global policy cycle is facing a sharp divergence
- June 23, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
At the June 2025 monetary policy meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged as expected by the market, while reiterating its policy inclination to cut interest rates twice this year. The signals released by this meeting were relatively mild, and the market reaction was flat. Citigroup described it as a “lackluster” policy meeting. The Fed’s updated economic forecasts showed only slight adjustments to expectations for GDP growth, unemployment and inflation, but the “dot plot” revealed obvious differences among internal decision-makers: 8 policymakers expected two rate cuts by the end of 2025, reflecting concerns about slowing economic growth and pressures in the job market; 7 policymakers tended to keep interest rates unchanged, highlighting the dilemma of fighting inflation and coping with policy uncertainty.
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The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive months, and expectations of interest rate cuts have cooled down! Under the pressure of tariffs and inflation, Powell sends signals of flexible policies
- June 20, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On the early morning of June 19th Beijing time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% -4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive pause in interest rate hikes since December 2024, in line with market expectations. The resolution statement pointed out that the US economic activity is “steadily expanding” and the unemployment rate is “staying low”, but at the same time emphasized that inflation is “still slightly high”, and for the first time mentioned the “impact of net export fluctuations on data”, implying that the Federal Reserve is wary of the transmission effect of tariff policies and external risks.
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