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Trump’s tariff stick hangs, Powell gets’ perfect excuse ‘to maintain high interest rates, gold under pressure
- July 9, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
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On July 7th, US President Trump signed an executive order to postpone the effective date of “equivalent tariffs” on 14 countries including Japan and South Korea from July 9th to August 1st, and announced specific tax rates (25% -40%). Although this policy adjustment provides a three week buffer period for each country, it explicitly requires the other party to reach a trade agreement before August 1st, otherwise they will face higher tariffs. Affected by this, the Nikkei 225 index of the Tokyo stock market fell by 1.2% on July 8th, and the stock prices of Toyota, Honda and other car companies fell by more than 4%.
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In depth analysis of the June 2025 non farm payroll report: “False fire” cannot conceal hidden employment concerns
- July 7, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
In June 2025, the non farm payroll data in the United States exceeded expectations on the surface but remained structurally weak, with 147000 new jobs added (expected 110000, revised from the previous value of 144000), the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% (expected 4.3%), and wages increasing by 3.7% year-on-year (expected 3.8%). Despite strong headline data, the private sector only added 74000 people, the lowest level since October 2024, and the government sector contributed nearly half of the new employment (73000 people), mainly concentrated in the state and local education sector.
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The Fed’s inaction hides differences, while the ECB sets off a wave of easing! The global policy cycle is facing a sharp divergence
- June 23, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
At the June 2025 monetary policy meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged as expected by the market, while reiterating its policy inclination to cut interest rates twice this year. The signals released by this meeting were relatively mild, and the market reaction was flat. Citigroup described it as a “lackluster” policy meeting. The Fed’s updated economic forecasts showed only slight adjustments to expectations for GDP growth, unemployment and inflation, but the “dot plot” revealed obvious differences among internal decision-makers: 8 policymakers expected two rate cuts by the end of 2025, reflecting concerns about slowing economic growth and pressures in the job market; 7 policymakers tended to keep interest rates unchanged, highlighting the dilemma of fighting inflation and coping with policy uncertainty.
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The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive months, and expectations of interest rate cuts have cooled down! Under the pressure of tariffs and inflation, Powell sends signals of flexible policies
- June 20, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On the early morning of June 19th Beijing time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% -4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive pause in interest rate hikes since December 2024, in line with market expectations. The resolution statement pointed out that the US economic activity is “steadily expanding” and the unemployment rate is “staying low”, but at the same time emphasized that inflation is “still slightly high”, and for the first time mentioned the “impact of net export fluctuations on data”, implying that the Federal Reserve is wary of the transmission effect of tariff policies and external risks.
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Global financial markets are in turmoil again: In-depth analysis of the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England
- March 24, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
In today’s complex and ever-changing global economic environment, the monetary policy decisions of central banks have become an important indicator of the financial market. Recently, the interest rate decisions and related policy dynamics of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have not only touched the nerves of investors, but also had a profound impact on the direction of the global financial market.
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March Interest Rate Report: The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged and hints at a rate cut
- March 21, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On the early morning of March 20th, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% -4.5%, and hinted that it may cut interest rates twice this year. This decision is in line with market expectations, but the economic forecast released after the meeting and Powell’s statement still caused market volatility. Affected by this, the spot gold price surged to a record high of $3055.6 per ounce in the short term, while the US dollar index fell under pressure.
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