On April 4th at 20:30 Beijing time (daylight saving time), the United States will release its non farm payroll report for March. It is expected that the average hourly wage will increase by 3.9% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous value of 4%, and the month on month increase will remain unchanged at the level of 0.3%; The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

Recently, the US economic situation has become complicated, with rising inflation expectations, falling consumer confidence and volatility in the gold market intertwined, bringing many uncertainties to the economic outlook. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that investors in the US bond market are anticipating rising inflation, which would be a “major danger signal” that could undermine policymakers’ plans to cut interest rates.

Recently, the US dollar index has continued its rebound trend, significantly suppressing international gold prices. The US dollar index, which measures the exchange rates of the US dollar against six major currencies, fluctuated upwards from a low of 104.17 and finally closed at 104.258, with a daily increase of 0.16%. As a result, spot gold prices have continued to decline from their historical high of around $3050 per ounce, approaching the integer level of $3000 at one point, with a cumulative adjustment of nearly $50. Market participants pointed out that the strengthening of the US dollar combined with short-term profit taking is the main driving force behind this round of gold price adjustment, but the core logic supporting gold in the medium and long term remains unchanged.

On the morning of March 24th in the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly around $3025 per ounce. Last Friday, due to the strengthening of the US dollar and profit taking sentiment, the gold price briefly fell below the $3000 integer level during trading, ultimately closing at $3023. The weekly cumulative increase was 1.17%, achieving three consecutive gains. Despite short-term pressure, geopolitical risks and expectations of Fed interest rate cuts continue to support gold prices, which have hit historic highs 16 times this year and reached a high of $3057 on Thursday.