Tariff storm sweeping across the United States: 70% of people worry about soaring prices, two parties debate economic costs, gold market welcomes safe haven trend

On April 9th local time, the US government officially implemented the “reciprocal tariff” policy, imposing tariffs of up to 104% on 57 trading partners including China, Mexico, and Vietnam. Combined with the previously imposed 10% base tax on all countries, the average import tax rate of US goods rose to 19.2%, reaching a new high since the Great Depression in 1930. This policy has caused severe fluctuations in the global market, with US stock futures plummeting by 4.2% and the US dollar index falling to 102.38, while the gold market has shown extreme volatility of “sharp drops and sharp rises” in the game between safe haven demand and liquidity crisis.

People and Enterprises: Price Anxiety and Survival Difficulties

70% of the public warns of inflation: A joint Reuters and Ipsos poll shows that 73% of American respondents believe that the new tariffs will lead to a significant increase in prices of daily consumer goods, while only 4% are optimistic. The American Chamber of Commerce predicts that tariff policies may cause price levels to rise by 3.2% and inflation rates to rise to 4.1%.

The survival pressure of enterprises has increased dramatically: 72% of imported goods in the United States are intermediate goods, and the increase in taxes has led to an average increase of 8% -12% in manufacturing production costs. The technology industry is the first to bear the brunt. The market value of Apple, Tesla and other “seven sisters of science and technology” has evaporated by more than $700 billion a day, while agricultural state legislators worry that agricultural exports will be hit by retaliatory tariffs.

Two party game: short-term pains and long-term interests torn apart

The Democratic Party strongly supports “protectionism”: Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (Republican) and Democratic Congressman Maria Cantwell jointly proposed the “2025 Trade Review Act”, which requires the president to report to Congress 48 hours before imposing tariffs and obtain approval within 60 days, otherwise the policy will automatically become invalid. The bill has received support from seven Republican senators, reflecting concerns within the party about the “tariff chaos”.

Deepening internal rifts within the Republican Party: Trump has strongly stated that tariffs are a “necessary remedy” and threatened to use his veto power. But agricultural state legislators such as Kansas Senator Jerry Moran have stated that voters are panicking about the “indiscriminate strike” tariff policy and worried about the loss of agricultural export markets.

The gold market: the struggle between safe haven attributes and liquidity crisis

Short term severe volatility: On April 9th, spot gold fluctuated widely in the range of $2969-3010 during the Asian session, and began to rise to around $3035 in the afternoon, with a growth rate of 1.69%.

The coexistence of safe haven demand and selling pressure: Despite the net inflow of funds into gold ETFs for six consecutive days (SPDR holdings increased to 828.71 tons), the liquidity crisis caused by the sharp decline in the US stock market prompted investors to sell gold for cash, causing gold prices to briefly fall below the $3000 mark.

JPMorgan Chase has raised the probability of a US economic recession to 60%, and the Peterson Institute for International Economics predicts that if tariffs continue, the US GDP growth rate may decrease by 0.9 percentage points in 2025. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warns that tariffs could result in 2 million job losses and an average annual loss of $5000 per household.

The “double-edged sword” effect of tariff policies is reshaping the US economy and global market landscape: people are concerned about skyrocketing prices, businesses are facing cost pressures, the two parties are caught in a political game of “short-term pains for long-term benefits,” and the gold market is seeking direction in the tug of war between safe haven attributes and liquidity crises. For investors, it is important to closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s policy signals and the evolution of geopolitical risks, and seize structural opportunities amidst volatility.