The decline in US bond yields supports the gold price at the 3000 mark, and the battle continues

On March 26, 2025, spot gold continued its high volatility pattern, with early trading in Asia at $3020.93 per ounce. Domestic gold T+D prices rose slightly by 0.24% to 706.06 yuan per gram. Although there are still differences in the market regarding the pace of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, the slight decline in US bond yields on that day provided short-term support for gold prices, and investors need to pay attention to the long short game at the $3000 integer level.

1、 Fluctuations in US Treasury yields dominate short-term gold price trends

Affected by the Federal Reserve’s policy expectations and the divergence of economic data, US bond yields have shown a fluctuating downward trend in recent times. On March 20th, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly fell below the 4.2% mark, reflecting market concerns about an economic slowdown. Analysis suggests that there is a negative correlation between US bond yields and gold prices: when yields decline, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, coupled with expectations of a weaker US dollar, making gold a more attractive non US asset. In addition, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to a 12 year low (92.9), further strengthening market risk aversion and driving funds towards safe assets such as gold.

2、 Geopolitics and inflation expectations support medium – to long-term gold prices

The current global geopolitical situation still remains uncertain: the Trump administration’s repeated tariff policies, such as not imposing tariffs on some countries; The phased achievements of the Russia Ukraine negotiations, such as the confirmation of navigation safety in the Black Sea; The ongoing tension in the Middle East situation; The German government’s announcement of dissolution may trigger fluctuations in safe haven demand.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve has raised its inflation forecast for 2025 to 2.7%, highlighting the potential rebound in inflation pressure and highlighting the anti inflationary nature of gold. The continued high demand for gold purchases by global central banks also provides structural support for gold prices.

3、 On the technical side, there is a stalemate between long and short positions, with $3000 becoming the key support

At the daily level, the gold price remains within the upward channel, with the 20 day moving average providing short-term support. The hourly chart shows that the gold price is fluctuating in the range of 3000-3036 US dollars, and the red bar of the MACD indicator has shortened, indicating that the bullish momentum has weakened.

Investors need to pay attention to the breakthrough of the resistance level of $3036. If it is effectively broken, the gold price is expected to challenge the historical high of $3057; On the contrary, if the $3000 mark is breached, it may trigger a technical sell-off to around $2980.

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Risk statement

Data sensitive timing: The Federal Reserve’s March PCE inflation data (released on March 29) may change the expected pace of interest rate cuts;

Sudden change in geopolitical situation: escalation of Middle East conflict or breakdown of Russia Ukraine negotiations may push up the safe haven premium;

Technical selling risk: Beware of the concentrated surge of stop loss orders caused by the loss of the $3000 mark.

The current gold market is driven by both policy expectations and risk aversion. It is recommended that investors closely monitor the dynamic changes in US bond yields, US dollar indices, and geopolitical events, and adjust their positions flexibly. Short term gold prices may continue to fluctuate within a certain range, while the medium to long term upward trend remains unchanged.